Community Corner

'Active' Hurricane Season, 'Well Above' Average, NOAA Predicts

Weather center predicts three to six "major hurricanes" for the season that begins June 1.

Official word for the 2013 hurricane season: The Atlantic area could see three to six "major hurricanes" for the season, which begins Saturday, June 1, according to the experts at the federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Although Northern Virginia normally doesn't take direct hits from hurricanes, the mega-storms can still pack a punch in the area, downing trees and power lines and knocking out power for days in recent years.

Remember Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee? 

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Here's what NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said Thursday:

For the six-month hurricane season, which starts June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of:

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  • Thirteen to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)

Of those 13 to 20 storms, the outlook says seven to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

"These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes," according to NOAA's advisory staff.

Read: 

  • Hurricane names for 2013 season

“With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time,” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator, in a news release sent out Thursday.

“As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline," she said. "Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall.”

Three climate factors that affect this year's hurricane season

NOAA laid out the three climate factors that control Atlantic hurricane activity and are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:

  • A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995; 

  • Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and

  • El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.

“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in the news release. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa." 


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